The Real Estate Clock: What time is it in our Market? Summer was SLOOOWWWW but Fall should be better!

In August we saw what we expect in the summer: not much in the way of activity. Although our part of the world is gorgeous in the summer, many people leave town or spend their time at the beach. Few are paying attention to real estate. While the numbers below may be a bit misleading (they say "UP" a lot) that is because they are comparisons with last year's even slower August. While increases in interest rates usually leads to decreases in prices, so far we have not seen that happen. We will see whether the impact of the rate increases is felt this Fall or whether the market picks back up. If the Fall is strong, most analysts seem to be predicting that we will see the downturn usually associated with higher interest rates set in by early 2024.

In August 2023 we saw:

-sales were UP 21.4% from August 2022
-sales were still 13.8% lower than the 10-year average for August
-the number of homes listed for sale was UP 18.1% when compared with August 2022
-the number of homes newly listed for sale was 5.3% below the 10-year average
-there were .2% fewer homes on the market at the end of August 2023 than there were in August 2022
-detached home sales were UP 13.2% from August 2022
-the benchmark price was UP 3.3% when compared to August 2022; and UP .3% when compared to a month earlier, July 2023

As has been the case for many months now, sales remain significantly lower than the 10 year average after the Covid explosion in sales and prices. Fortunately the September 6th Bank of Canada announcement did NOT include an increase in rates, which likely would have made the market worse. Commentators have noted that we are now at the point where we would expect to see the impacts of rates on prices. This Fall will hopefully hang on but we expect next Spring will be where we will definitely see the rate increases that have occured over the past 18 months putting downward pressure on prices.

Given the anticipated impact of the interest rate hikes noted above (pushing prices down) by Spring, it is a great time to be planning for the Fall to maximize your sale price. Generally in the second week of September we see a lot of very keen buyers BUT most sellers haven't yet listed (as they too come back from summer vacation and need to get ready). Those sellers who are listed first tend to benefit from supply and demand and may see higher prices and faster sales than those who wait until the end of September or the beginning of October to list. For buyers we might see some good opportunities by next Spring 2024.

If you would like to plan your sale or would like more detailed information about what we expect to see over the next 6-12 months, I would be happy to meet with you or discuss by phone.